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US Equities, looking back and forward

Wim Antoons evaluará la utilidad del CAPE como indicador de market-timing poniendo el mercado estadounidense de renta variable como ejemplo.

The cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio is often used to express the valuation of an equity market. This lecture focuses on the CAPE of the U.S. equity market and finds it was very high in June 2018. Although a high CAPE has tended to suggest lower returns in the future, such forecasts only make sense for longer periods. CAPE has not been a reliable forecasting tool for short-term movements of the market and thus it is difficult to use as a market-timing indicator. Similar results were found for other developed countries.

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